Brussels, May 29, 2024 – The Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity (SACD) has released a comprehensive new report titled “Fading Vision of a Safe Syria”, which details how, with global attention diverted to other crises, the plight of Syrians continues to deteriorate, demanding urgent international intervention. 

The report, based on over 3,000 interviews with Syrians in both regime-controlled areas and regions held by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), highlights the critical security, socio-economic, and humanitarian challenges faced by Syrians. It underscores the need for systemic change and robust international support to create a safe and dignified environment for returnees. 

More than half of Syria’s pre-war population remain displaced, with approximately 5.5 million refugees outside Syria and another 7.2 million internally displaced. As global attention shifts to other crises, there is a misconception that Syria is entering a post-conflict phase. However, the Syrian regime’s behaviour remains unchanged, and no significant returns have taken place. 

The root causes of the conflict, including the regime’s security policies, arbitrary arrests, and enforced disappearances, have not been addressed. Over 80% of refugees and IDPs demand the dismantling and reform of the regime’s security services before considering a return. The reduction in military hostilities has not translated into a safe environment. Civilians in regime-held areas face arbitrary arrest, forced conscription, and extortion by militias. 

The economic situation is dire, with 90% of Syrians in regime areas living below the poverty line. The mismanagement of the economy, combined with corruption and western sanctions, has worsened conditions, pushing many to consider leaving the country. 

In north-east Syria, controlled by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the security environment remains unstable. ISIS sleeper cells and conflicts between the SDF and Turkish forces present ongoing threats. Recent clashes have further destabilized the region, exacerbating ethnic tensions and leading to further displacement. 

The future of Syria’s conflict and the return of refugees is not just a socio-economic issue. Surveys indicate that without systemic changes to the regime and its security apparatus, refugees and IDPs will not return, despite the growing pressure on them in countries like Lebanon. Less than a quarter of respondents expressed optimism about the UN-led political process, highlighting a need for comprehensive solutions, including justice and accountability measures. 

“The international community must take decisive action to create a safe and stable environment in Syria. This means sustained diplomatic efforts, economic pressure, and direct involvement of displaced Syrians in the political process. The status quo is untenable, and we risk further displacements if no substantial changes occur,” says Dr. Mazen Kseibi, a member of SACD’s Board of Trustees. 

The report’s findings include the fact that only 1.1% of refugees expressed an intention to return to Syria within the next year, citing safety and economic conditions as major deterrents. 

Detention remains a defining fact of life for Syrians in regime areas. Despite regime fanfare about amnesty decrees, just 17 percent of respondents said that previously detained relatives were released through a recent decree—from November 2023—with more than three-quarters of surveyed respondents doubting the seriousness and meaningfulness of the amnesty as a result.

More than half of residents of regime areas and north-east Syria say they are dissatisfied with economic conditions in their respective places of residence; three-quarters of the Syrians in regime areas who said they were thinking of emigrating if and when they get the opportunity to do so said that economic factors were behind their thinking.   

A striking fact captured by the report indicates that almost all of those who returned for different reasons would not advise others to follow in their footsteps. Some 85 percent of returnees in regime areas and 91 percent in north-east Syria said they would not recommend that other displaced Syrians do the same.  

Importantly, SACD’s findings suggest that Syria is now seeing growing emigration and displacement intentions among populations within regime areas who were never displaced during the conflict but are now being forced into considering a life outside Syria because of the country’s economic collapse. Less than a quarter of respondents expressed any optimism whatsoever towards the UN-led political process, with many distrustful of the actors involved or the entire process itself. 

The report provides several key recommendations for international stakeholders, including the United States, European Union, Türkiye, Lebanon, and civil society organizations. These include creating a realistic roadmap for a safe environment in Syria, ensuring meaningful participation of displaced Syrians in political negotiations, increasing humanitarian funding, and countering misleading narratives that portray Syria as a safe post-conflict zone. 

 

Read the full report with detailed findings here: